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Here is what Iran might do after Trump pulls out of nuclear deal

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U.S. President Donald Trump has announced on Tuesday the withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Tehran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain and the United States in 2015.

Iran agreed to curbs on its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions. But the withdrawal of the United States  has sunk the deal.

Now that it has happened, Iran could retaliate by undermining the interests of Washington and its allies in the Middle East.ere are some possible scenarios:

IRAQ

When Islamic State seized much of Iraq in 2014, Iran was quick to support Baghdad. Iran has since helped arm and train thousands of Shi’ite fighters in Iraq. These Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are also a significant political force.

Iran could encourage PMF factions who want the U.S. to leave Iraq to step up rhetorical, and maybe military, attacks against American forces.

These could be rocket, mortar and roadside bomb attacks not directly linked to a specific Shi’ite militia, which would allow Iran to deny it had changed its position of avoiding direct conflict with U.S. forces in Iraq.

SYRIA

Iran and paramilitary allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been involved in Syria’s war since 2012. Iran has armed and trained thousands of Shi’ite paramilitary fighters to shore up the government. Israel says Iran has recruited at least 80,000 Shi’ite fighters.

Iran’s presence in Syria has brought Tehran into direct conflict with Israel for the first time, with a series of high-profile clashes in recent months. Israeli officials say they will never let Tehran or Hezbollah establish a permanent military presence in neighbouring Syria

Iran will have little incentive to stop its Shi’ite militia allies in Syria from carrying out attacks against Israel.

Iran and the forces it controls in Syria could also cause trouble for about 2,000 U.S. troops deployed in northern and eastern Syria to support Kurdish-led fighters.

A top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said in April he hoped Syria and its allies would drive U.S. troops out of eastern Syria.

LEBANON

In 2006, Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill in a 34-day border war. According to Israeli and U.S. officials, Iran is now helping Hezbollah build factories to manufacture precision-guided missiles or refit longer-range missiles with precision guidance systems.

Israeli forces have repeatedly attacked Hezbollah in Syria where the group is leading many of Iran’s Shi’ite militia allies. The rhetoric between Israel and Iran has ramped up in recent weeks. Though Hezbollah and Israel say they are not interested in conflict, the tensions could easily spill over into another Lebanon war.

Hezbollah said last year that any war waged by Israel against Syria and Lebanon could draw thousands of fighters from countries including Iran and Iraq, indicating that Shi’ite militias could come to Lebanon to help Hezbollah.

Hezbollah and its political allies won just over half the seats in Lebanon’s parliamentary election, unofficial results showed on Monday. For the moment, the group is working with its political opponents, notably Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who is backed by Western governments.

Iran could pressure Hezbollah to isolate its opponents, a development experts believe could destabilise Lebanon.

“Hezbollah literally controls Lebanese politics,” said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political studies at the American University of Beirut. “If they do that, it would be sheer harassment.”

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